24 April 2014
Details on the AKB48 Group Pennant Race
In November last year the AKB48 Group announced that they will introduce a new event, the AKB48 Group Pennant Race. Now details about this event have been finally revealed.
The teams of AKB48 (except for Team 8), SKE48, NMB48 and HKT48 will compete against each other in terms of theater ticket applications, ticket sales for theater handshake events and total votes at the Senbatsu Sounsekyo. The race started on April 22 and will continue until October 31.
AKB48 Group Pennant Race ~AKB48 Group wa Kisoiatte Migakareru~
Date: April 22~October 31
Participating Teams: A, K, B, 4, S, KII, E, N, M, BII, H, KIV
(The following details are a summarized translation of the announcement posted in the Official AKB48 Blog )
Points will be awarded for:
1) Rate of ticket applications for AKB48 Group theater shows by paying members
2) Theater version handshake events ticket sales
3) Number of votes obtained at the Single Senbatsu Election
on 1) The new shows from shonichi onward by the new teams announced at the Daisokaku Matsuri will be part of the pennant race. For each show a prediction rate will be revealed when the performing members for that show are announced. After the actual show the final result will be revealed based on which the points gained will be announced.
on 2) The AKB48 theater version handshake events (individual handshake event) will be subject to the race. After the event the points gained by each team that day will be announced.
on 3) The AKB48 37th Single senbatsu election held on June 7 will be subject to the race. Points will be calculated team-wise with the D'Hondt method. They will be announced after the event.
The points gained and the team ranking will be posted in realtime on the Pennant Race homepage (the page will be launched soon).
The calculation will be done by the statistician Torigoe Norio who also helped with the Janken Taikai.
More details on ranking and calculation of points:
The team with the most points will rank first. If teams have the same number of points, the rank will be decided by the points gained in category 1 (see above), if those are even by 2) and then by 3).
For category 1)
1. The new shows from shonichi onward by the new teams announced at the Daisokaku Matsuri will be counted but special shows (for example girls-only shows) will be excluded.
2. For each performed show 2 points will be awarded.
3. A reference rate will be calculated based on the performing members for that day. If the number of applications by paying members (mobile members, fanclub members) surpasses that reference rate another 5 points will be awarded.
Calculation of the reference rate:
The reference rate will be calculated through a regression analysis based on last year's application rate and the respective participating members.
y: application rate
xk: performing status of member k
xk=1 member k performed
xk=0 member k did not perform
formula used for calculation:
By doing a regression analysis ak (k =0,1,…, n) will be guessed. The reference rate will be calculated with this method using the data of the members scheduled to perform the respective show. At birthday shows or weekend shows, a number multiplied by these coefficients will be announced as reference rate (?).
1. The AKB48 theater version handshakes that will be held from April 22 onward will be counted.
2. The points for the members who participate at the first theater version hs after April 22 will be assigned like this:
Percentage of available tickets sold:
95~100%: 1 point
90~below 95%: 0.95 p
85~below 90%: 0.90 p
80~below 85%: 0.85 p
75~below 80%: 0.80 p
70~below 75%: 0.75 p
65~below 70%: 0.70 p
60~below 65%: 0.65 p
55~below 60%: 0.60 p
50~below 55%: 0.55 p
45~below 50%: 0.50 p
40~below 45%: 0.45 p
35~below 40%: 0.40 p
30~below 35%: 0.35 p
25~below 30%: 0.30 p
20~below 25%: 0.25 p
15~below 20%: 0.20 p
10~below 15%: 0.15 p
5~below 10%: 0.10 p
0~below 5%: 0.05 p
The team points will be the sum of the member points.
3. From the second theater version handshake event on: if the sales number of the participating member has increased since the last event the points (see table above) will be multiplied with the rate of increase.
Last event 100 tickest were sold,
For the current event 150 (in this case worth 0.8 points)
Points assigned: 0.8×150/100=1.2
4. From the second theater version handshake event on: if the sales number has already reached the limit of available tickets at the previous event and has done so also at the current event, the points gained will be those from the previous event multiplied by 1.1
5. From the second theater version handshake event on: if neither 3. and 4. is the case, the participating member will receive points as described under 2.
6. The points of concurrent members will be assigned to both teams.
1. The AKB48 37th Single senbatsu election held on June 7 will be subject to the race.
2. From the number of votes gained by each candidate points will be calculated by the D'Hondt method as decribed below.
a) The points of each member will be divided by 1, 2 and 3.
b) 1 point will be assigned if the divided vote numbers surpass total votes of another member. (? note: please see example for clarification)
The member ranked #80 will get 1 point.
The team points will be the total points of all team members.
3. The points of concurrent members will be assigned to both teams.
Example based on last year's results (for simplification only until rank 16 which will get 1 point)
Team Member Votes divided by 2 by 3 points
AKB48 also uploaded a video in which the calculation method is explained further:
The calculation system is complex and I am not familiar with Japanese maths terminology but I did my best. So please forgive me if there are some translation errors.